Tonight Mitt Romney will open up a significant lead if election results come in relative to when the polls close in any particular state.
At 19:00 EST (02:00 SAST) Indiana and Kentucky's polls will close, and both states will go for Romney. The electoral college score at this point will be Democrats 0, Republicans 19.
The next set will be Alabama, Georgia Florida, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.
Let's assume Romney wins Florida where he is up. He could also take New Hampshire He will definitely win Alabama and South Carolina. I would put Virginia in Obama's column. So at this point we're at Democrats 16 EC votes, Republicans 86.
Half an hour later polls close in North Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio. Romney looks set to win the first two, and Obama Ohio. EC votes: Democrats 34, Republicans 106.
The next set is massive: Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas. None of these is a swing state (Pennsylvania is on a good day but I doubt today is one of them). They will all fall predictably. At this point the electoral college will stand at Democrats 171 Republicans 190.
Republicans will then receive a boost from Arkansas which closes next, adding six electoral votes: Democrats 171, Republicans 196.
Following that polls will close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Wyoming. I am going to assume Colorado falls Democrat which would leave us at Democrats 205, Republicans 223.
After this Obama's dominance on the west coast, including the giant state of California with its 55 electoral college votes kicks in.
So if you're a Democrat, don't panic. If you're a Republican, don't be overconfident.